June 18, 2021

the trompe-l’oeil dynamic of the National Rally

The National Rally (RN) is approaching the first round of regional elections at a high level, with notable gains on the western facade, in Brittany or New Aquitaine, traditionally more hostile to the far-right party. It could thus come first in six out of thirteen regions, second in five others, and could win in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, or even in another region, according to the latest wave of polls carried out by Ipsos-Sopra. Steria, carried out from June 3 to 7 on a representative sample of 1,000 people registered on the electoral rolls, and using the quota method. Nevertheless, the RN is in decline compared to the last regional election, in December 2015 – the movement was still called the National Front (FN) -, where it had obtained important scores, but without winning a single region.

“The polls, and especially the field, show the strong dynamic of the National Rally throughout France, exclaimed, on June 9, Marine Le Pen on Twitter. Total mobilization: let’s turn hope into victories! ” Especially the ground, and less in the polls, suits the party president, they are indeed slightly below what she could have hoped, while she believes that the departmental and regional elections are the first step in her conquest of the power. “We need all communities to be turned towards the same objective, in support of the state policy that I will pursue when I become President of the Republic, repeats the candidate during the stages of her Tour de France. J‘ai need departments to support these changes. “

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In six regions, the RN could be significantly below its 2015 score, in three others at about the same level, and in the last three – if we leave aside Corsica, where the top of the list, François Filoni, is credited with only 4% – the movement is progressing. The FN had obtained scores above 30% in six regions, this is only true in three, in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA), in Occitanie and in Hauts-de-France. The very good score of 2015 had taken place just after the November attacks, which had undoubtedly provoked an increase in mobilization and a boost to the Le Penist vote.

Brittany, a striking symbol

“In mainland France, the FN obtained 28.4% of the votes in 2015, it was very high, analysis Brice Teinturier, deputy managing director of Ipsos. So it seems that the RN will do less well. We tend to forget how high it was during the last election, in particular because of the little music on the dynamism of the RN, but no, nationally, the RN should be below its 2015 level. ”

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