August 1, 2021

“If we do not reduce emissions in 2100, floods will be 14 times more frequent”

In 2100 in Floods in Europe will be 14 times more frequent. This is the alarm that comes from scholars if they are not reduced gas emissions. Come direct consequence of the climate changes, flood storms such as those that hit Germany, Belgium and Holland in recent days could become 14 times more frequent by 2100, especially during the summer.

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To reveal it is a study ofNew Castle University, published in the magazine Geophysical Research Letters, based on computer models such as those from Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, with a resolution of 2km, the same used in short-term weather forecasts.

One truly alarming scenario, scholars warn, which will occur in the event of failure to reduce or continuously increase greenhouse gas emissions. Previous studies had already shown that higher air temperatures caused by global warming mean that the atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to more severe and abundant downpours.

However, this analysis is the first to evaluate the role of slow storms and their extreme consequences in Europe: the slower a storm moves, the more rain it pours on a small area and the greater the risk of severe flooding.

“This study shows that in addition to the intensification of precipitation with global warming, we can also expect a large increase in slow storms. This is very relevant for the recent floods observed in Germany and Belgium, which highlight the devastating impacts of slow storms “he stressed. Lizzie Kendon of the British Met Office. «The simulations give the idea that even worse can happenResearch director Abdullah Kahraman of Newcastle University told The Guardian, referring to the devastating floods that in recent days have caused 200 deaths in three countries of the old continent.

According to forecasts, the largest increase in slow storms on land will occur in the summer, “especially in August and will affect much of the European continent, even the colder northern regions, such as Scandinavia and the United Kingdom,” Kahraman said.

Last updated: Wednesday 21 July 2021, 22:49